Are emerging markets worth it?
When basic caution is exercised, the rewards of investing in an emerging market can outweigh the risks. Despite their volatility, the most growth and the highest-returning stocks are going to be found in the fastest-growing economies.
Important information: The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest. Emerging markets have underperformed their developed counterparts for around a decade, with the trend continuing in 2023 despite the robust economic growth1.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Emerging markets may have unstable, even volatile, governments. Political unrest can cause serious consequences to the economy and investors. Economic risk. These markets may often suffer from insufficient labor and raw materials, high inflation or deflation, unregulated markets and unsound monetary policies.
Consider EM bonds carefully
Among the opportunities in the fixed income markets in 2024, local-currency EM bonds may be one to consider for investors with a higher risk tolerance. The relatively high yields and likelihood of rate cuts by global central banks have created a tactical investment opportunity.
There are examples of stock markets with high levels of volatility in the emerging world. There are cases of EM countries allowing very high inflation and imposing substantial controls on companies operating there.
Emerging markets are generally less liquid than those found in developed economies. This market imperfection results in higher broker fees and an increased level of price uncertainty.
- eCommerce.
- Online education.
- The health and fitness industry.
- The home improvement industry.
- The pet care industry.
- Travel and tourism.
- Invest in your future.
- Get a loan and start your business.
Stock | Expected Change in Stock Price* |
---|---|
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 61% |
Mastercard Inc. (MA) | 14.2% |
Salesforce Inc. (CRM) | 7.2% |
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) | 11.3% |
Period | Average annualised return | Total return |
---|---|---|
Last year | 10.9% | 10.9% |
Last 5 years | 4.2% | 22.8% |
Last 10 years | 6.2% | 81.7% |
Last 20 years | 7.7% | 343.3% |
Do emerging markets do well in recession?
If a US recession is on the way would only make more of a case for greater diversification in global portfolios – a positive for emerging markets. A recession would entail lower inflation and, as a result, lower US interest rates.
Historically, the biggest risks faced by foreign investors were in developing countries with immature or volatile political systems. The chief concern was “expropriation risk,” the possibility that host governments would seize foreign-owned assets.
Of course, EM equity markets have delivered disappointing returns over the last 10 years. But rewind further to the first decade of the 21st century, and EM stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Over the longer run since 2001, EM stocks have outpaced the MSCI World.
Berkshire takes a “barbell” approach of using stocks and cash because Buffett isn't enamored of bonds—and hasn't been for a decade or more—even with the rise in yields since 2022.
In short, a review of the three standard approaches to EM allocation suggest global equity investors should allocate somewhere in the range of 13% to 39% to EM. Source: FactSet, MSCI, MSIM calculations.
High-yield or junk bonds typically carry the highest risk among all types of bonds. These bonds are issued by companies or entities with lower credit ratings or creditworthiness, making them more prone to default.
Emerging markets account for 80% of global growth. Emerging markets may have a competitive advantage as exporters of low-cost and raw goods to richer nations. Exchange-traded funds are one way to get exposure to this region, but look to see what you're buying.
Investors seek out emerging markets for the prospect of high returns because these markets often experience faster economic growth as measured by gross domestic product (GDP).
Investing in individual emerging markets stocks is difficult for the average investor, so mutual funds and ETFs are often the most effective way to do it. Look for funds with high assets under management.
- Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO).
- iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG).
- Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF (SCHE).
- SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM).
Are emerging markets cheap?
He notes that US profits have grown by 7% per year over the past decade, while emerging market earnings have essentially been stagnant. “Although emerging market equities appear to be cheap, they could be cheap for a reason,” he says.
U.S. GDP grew 5.2% in the third quarter of 2023, but the latest Federal Reserve economic projections suggest that growth will slow to just 1.4% for the full year in 2024. The 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted since mid-2022, a historically strong recession indicator.
Historically, the industries considered to be the most defensive and better placed to fare reasonably during recessions are utilities, health care, and consumer staples.
In recent years, telemedicine has expanded significantly and this sector will grow in the next 5 to 10 years. The global telemedicine market is predicted by Fortune Business Insights to expand from $87.41 billion in 2022 to $286.22 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2% from 2023 to 2030.
S.No. | Name | CMP Rs. |
---|---|---|
1. | Guj. Themis Bio. | 384.95 |
2. | Refex Industries | 139.05 |
3. | Tanla Platforms | 985.45 |
4. | M K Exim India | 75.90 |
References
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-bonds-stocks-3f3058b6
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/11/risks-investing-in-emerging-markets.asp
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- https://www.charles-stanley.co.uk/insights/commentary/is-it-time-to-invest-in-emerging-markets
- https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/why-investors-should-consider-emerging-market-bonds-2024.html
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- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/emergingmarketeconomy.asp
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- https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/investing/best-emerging-market-etfs/